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Part III - The Basics: Some Ways to Let Profits Run -- By: Bill Kraft
Copyright 2009, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
 Bill Kraft Editor |
This article is the last in the current series dealing with the
basics of cutting losses and letting profits run. Last week I focused on
various ways to cut losses. Each is relatively simple but all require
that the trader follow the discipline and be absolutely faithful to his
plan. There is no question that trading real money brings emotions
close to the surface and as I mentioned in the first article in this
series, many traders cut profits and let losses run. Without iron
fisted discipline we all run the risk of falling into that very trap.
When we see a loss, it is very easy to say to ourselves: "It'll come
back." We may decide to let it go just another 10 or 15 cents and all
too often that becomes $1.00 or $5.00 or more. If we incorporate a
specific exit strategy in our plan and pre-determine what will trigger
our exit before we enter the play, we have taken one very important step
in increasing the likelihood of overall profitability in our trading.
We have included a disciplined methodology of cutting our losses.
My observations have taught me that many serious traders "get it"
and do establish loss cutting strategies fairly early in their learning
curves. It seems, however, that they may find it more difficult to let
profits run. Instead, there seems to be a tendency to pull the plug
fairly early when a profit is seen and the result quite often is to cut
profits as well. Just as there are innumerable ways to cut losses,
there are many devices to help let profits run.
One way to let profits run is to use a trailing stop order. As the
name implies, we can place an order with our broker that trails behind
the movement of our stock price and takes us out when it moves against
us a pre-determined amount. I often use trailing stops in situations
where my position is already profitable and I want to put the trade on
auto-pilot so that I remain in the position until it reverses an amount
that I have pre-determined. For those who may be unfamiliar with the
use of a trailing stop, let's look at an example. Suppose I bought
shares of my old friend XYZ at $20 a share and the stock has moved up to
$22 a share. There is profit in the position and I would like to
protect at least some of that while continuing to let the profits run if
the upward move is going to continue. I could place a trailing stop,
based either on a percentage or on a dollar move down. Suppose I
decided to set a trailing stop at $0.75. Initially when I place the
stop with the stock at $22 a share, that means I would stay in the
position as long as the stock price doesn't fall below $21.25. If it
did, I would be stopped out and probably preserve at least some of my
gain. On the other hand, if the stock moved up, the trailing stop would
also move up. Suppose it moved to $25 a share. Now my stop would
automatically have moved to $24.25. In this case, the stop would always
move up based on the new highs the stock is making. Similarly, I could
have chosen a percentage stop instead of a 75 cent stop. In our example
if I chose a 5% stop, at a $22 share price, initially a drop of 5% to
$20.90 would take me out. If the stock went to $25, my stop would now
be at a 5% drop from that level or $23.75. Ordinarily, trailing stops
are placed good 'til canceled so that they remain in place and profits
run until a pre-determined retracement takes place.
In last weekend's article, I suggested that one could use a moving
average as a stop loss. Use of the moving average can also assist in
letting profits run. Suppose as in last weekend's example, I bought a
stock as it bounced up off a 50 day moving average. My initial exit
might be on a break below that average, but my whole exit strategy could
be to exit whenever the moving average is broken. In general, as long
as the stock price is moving up the moving average can be expected to be
moving up as well. Thus as long as the stock price remains above the
moving average, my profits continue to run and I continue in the play.
It is only when whatever moving average I have chosen is broken that I
exit the play. Once again, it is the price movement of the stock that
takes me out instead of some emotional reaction on my part. The same
methodology can be utilized with a trend line.
Yet another way to let profits run is to follow behind the move
with a stop loss order. I often move my stop behind Japanese
candlesticks. As the move continues in my direction, I am moving my
stop up using the candlesticks. When the move reverses it takes me out
rather than me taking me out.
Once again, many of these strategies are quite simple. I am
certain of one thing. Their use works better than me listening to that
"little voice" inside my head that almost invariably tries to suck me
into cutting profits and letting losses run.
As a little review of this series of articles, I suggest the
following are major points:
1. Recognize that cutting losses and letting profits run can be
instrumental in achieving trading and investing success;
2. Create and implement a plan that fits your own trading personality
taking account of your risk tolerance, available time, and knowledge of
strategies;
3. Accept that some trades will lose;
4. Include an exit strategy in your plan that has the stock price
movement take you out of a position that is going against you and don't
rely on your emotions;
5. Include an exit strategy that keeps you in a position as it continues
to move in your desired direction, but that takes you out on
pre-determined reversals;
6. Understand that discipline rather than emotion must control the exits;
7. Understand that the biggest impediment to overall success may well be
you and your reaction to your own emotions.
I hope this series has shed some light on ways how a trader can cut
losses and let profits run. Both my books, "Trade Your Way to Wealth"
and "Smart Investors Money Machine" include information that goes
farther in discussing these elements in greater detail as they pertain
to specific strategies, specific investments and to the "how to's" at
various stages of an investors life. I hope you get copies and continue
the learning process. For those who are really serious about taking the
next steps, you may want to consider an intensive coaching session
designed for you personally.
As to the blogger who asked for more information on how to cut
losses and let profits run, I sincerely hope this information has
advanced your knowledge as well as that of other subscribers.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
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