How Long Will My Trade Be? -- By: Bill Kraft
Copyright 2009, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
 Bill Kraft Editor |
Recently, a subscriber to the Option Trader service wrote to ask
why I bought LEAPS (that expire a year to three years out) when I only
planned to be in a trade from 1 to 3 months. That is definitely a
great question that raises what I consider to be some very important
issues about all trading, whether stock or options.
The first answer with regard to my own trading is that I do not
employ an exit strategy based upon how long I plan to be in a trade.
In other words, when I enter a position, the length of time is not
going to be the reason for my exit (unless, of course, it is an option
that expires). I try to remain in a position depending upon the price
behavior of the stock. Why, for example, would I want to exit a
bullish position when the stock is continuing to move up? That action
would serve to cut my profits and that is something I want to avoid.
Similarly, if a position turns against me, I want to get out. I want
to cut my losses and let my profits run.
Unfortunately, and all too often, investors have no exit
strategy. Witness so many in the most recent bear market who have
seen their portfolios drop 40% or 50% or more. Many times they remain
in positions because they are "investing for the long term." Sadly,
that has not worked for those holding stock in companies like Enron,
Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, or Washington Mutual. An exit strategy
that is only defined by time can result in some very serious losses.
Instead of defining my exit strategy solely by time, I try to
use a specific discipline that I pre-determine before I enter the
trade. I might use a break through a moving average or a break
through a trend or the crossover of two moving averages. The choice
can vary from play to play, but it is based on some discipline other
than the passage of time.
Specifically relating to the subscribers question, when I buy
call options, I buy a lot of time. Generally, if I remain in the
position it is either because the stock price is continuing to move up
or because I want to use the position as an underlying against which I
can bring in income by selling other options. Additionally, buying
long term options or LEAPS (technically Long Term Equity Anticipation
Securities) the time decay portion of the premium initially does not
run against me as quickly and I often can find a better delta than I
would at the same strike price with a nearer term expiration.
I would add one thought and that is some successful traders do
use a time stop to exit positions quickly if the play does not begin
to run in their favor relatively quickly. For example, even if I were
using a price support as an exit, I may have decided in advance to
exit my position if the stock doesn't move my way within 2 or 3 days.
Bottom line, for me, is to let the stock price movement make the
decision for me when to get out rather than to use a purely time-based
exit.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
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Option Trader -- by Bill Kraft
Our Option Trading Service is for conservative traders that understand leverage principles and enjoy the challenge of options trading. We focus on powerful option trading strategies that place volatility and momentum in your favor. And we pride ourselves on always minimizing our losses!
The Option Trader service utilizes standard trading in Puts and Calls as well as strategies using Leaps, Straddles, Credit Spreads, Calendar Spreads, and Naked Puts. But no matter how sophisticated a strategy may be, we ALWAYS know our downside potential on every trade.
Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:
DIAMONDS Trust, Series 1 (DIA)
Taking advantage of the continued downturn, Option Trader
was able to capture a 20% before commission gain on a bearish put
spread in 16 days. The Dow fell to close below the November lows on
very high volume. DIA may well present another trade by the early part
of next week.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
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Trend Trader -- by Bill Kraft
Trend trading as we try to practice it is a form of momentum trading. We prefer to try to capture profit out of the middle of the trend rather than try to catch reversal at bottoms and tops.
Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:
DCP Midstream Partners LP (DPM)
DPM, while technically a master limited partnership, came to
rest at recent support. It has been paying a distribution at an annual
rate of over 20% based on current price levels. A bounce up from the
current levels could be a reason for entry.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
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$10 Trader -- by Bill Kraft
We really enjoy trading stocks that are $10 and under. Often they provide the chance to enjoy high percentage gains and, of course, at worst, the risk is limited to what we paid for the stock.
Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:
LoJack Corp. (LOJN)
LOJN provided a successful trade in this difficult stock picking
market. $10 trader grabbed a 13% gain in a week (before the small
commission) on this one which rocketed on an earnings report only to
fall back relatively quickly. I still like the company and am watching
for re-entry as the stock price deals with the 40 day exponential
moving average.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
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