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How Long Will My Trade Be? Answer Finally Revealed...
Archived Issue

Weekend Newsletter
February 21, 2009

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      In This Edition:


      How Long Will My Trade Be?


            
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  • How Long Will My Trade Be? -- By: Bill Kraft
    Copyright 2009, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
    Bill Kraft
    Bill Kraft
    Editor

    Recently, a subscriber to the Option Trader service wrote to ask why I bought LEAPS (that expire a year to three years out) when I only planned to be in a trade from 1 to 3 months. That is definitely a great question that raises what I consider to be some very important issues about all trading, whether stock or options.

    The first answer with regard to my own trading is that I do not employ an exit strategy based upon how long I plan to be in a trade. In other words, when I enter a position, the length of time is not going to be the reason for my exit (unless, of course, it is an option that expires). I try to remain in a position depending upon the price behavior of the stock. Why, for example, would I want to exit a bullish position when the stock is continuing to move up? That action would serve to cut my profits and that is something I want to avoid. Similarly, if a position turns against me, I want to get out. I want to cut my losses and let my profits run.

    Unfortunately, and all too often, investors have no exit strategy. Witness so many in the most recent bear market who have seen their portfolios drop 40% or 50% or more. Many times they remain in positions because they are "investing for the long term." Sadly, that has not worked for those holding stock in companies like Enron, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, or Washington Mutual. An exit strategy that is only defined by time can result in some very serious losses.

    Instead of defining my exit strategy solely by time, I try to use a specific discipline that I pre-determine before I enter the trade. I might use a break through a moving average or a break through a trend or the crossover of two moving averages. The choice can vary from play to play, but it is based on some discipline other than the passage of time.

    Specifically relating to the subscribers question, when I buy call options, I buy a lot of time. Generally, if I remain in the position it is either because the stock price is continuing to move up or because I want to use the position as an underlying against which I can bring in income by selling other options. Additionally, buying long term options or LEAPS (technically Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities) the time decay portion of the premium initially does not run against me as quickly and I often can find a better delta than I would at the same strike price with a nearer term expiration.

    I would add one thought and that is some successful traders do use a time stop to exit positions quickly if the play does not begin to run in their favor relatively quickly. For example, even if I were using a price support as an exit, I may have decided in advance to exit my position if the stock doesn't move my way within 2 or 3 days.

    Bottom line, for me, is to let the stock price movement make the decision for me when to get out rather than to use a purely time-based exit.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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  • Option Trader -- by Bill Kraft

    Our Option Trading Service is for conservative traders that understand leverage principles and enjoy the challenge of options trading. We focus on powerful option trading strategies that place volatility and momentum in your favor. And we pride ourselves on always minimizing our losses!

    The Option Trader service utilizes standard trading in Puts and Calls as well as strategies using Leaps, Straddles, Credit Spreads, Calendar Spreads, and Naked Puts. But no matter how sophisticated a strategy may be, we ALWAYS know our downside potential on every trade.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    DIAMONDS Trust, Series 1 (DIA)
    Taking advantage of the continued downturn, Option Trader was able to capture a 20% before commission gain on a bearish put spread in 16 days. The Dow fell to close below the November lows on very high volume. DIA may well present another trade by the early part of next week.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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  • Trend Trader -- by Bill Kraft

    Trend trading as we try to practice it is a form of momentum trading. We prefer to try to capture profit out of the middle of the trend rather than try to catch reversal at bottoms and tops.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    DCP Midstream Partners LP (DPM)
    DPM, while technically a master limited partnership, came to rest at recent support. It has been paying a distribution at an annual rate of over 20% based on current price levels. A bounce up from the current levels could be a reason for entry.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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  • $10 Trader -- by Bill Kraft

    We really enjoy trading stocks that are $10 and under. Often they provide the chance to enjoy high percentage gains and, of course, at worst, the risk is limited to what we paid for the stock.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    LoJack Corp. (LOJN)
    LOJN provided a successful trade in this difficult stock picking market. $10 trader grabbed a 13% gain in a week (before the small commission) on this one which rocketed on an earnings report only to fall back relatively quickly. I still like the company and am watching for re-entry as the stock price deals with the 40 day exponential moving average.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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