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Paralysis (Weekend Newsletter)
Archived Issue

Weekend Newsletter
July 3, 2010

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      In This Edition:


    Paralysis


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  • Paralysis -- By: Bill Kraft
    Copyright 2010, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
    Bill Kraft
    Bill Kraft
    Editor

    First, a happy 4th of July! I hope you all have an absolutely fantastic weekend.

    As I was thinking about the subject for this weekend's article I found myself a bit mentally mired searching for a topic. That happens every once in a while. I find that when I try to think of a topic rather than just letting it pop into my head from a reader's comment or something I may see or read I have a tough time coming up with something new or at least with some new twist. There is almost a little mental paralysis hindering the quest. Anyway, the thought of that paralysis made me think of how we are sometimes affected by paralysis in our trading.

    One type of paralysis I've seen over the years is the paralysis of analysis where the would-be trader spends so much time and effort conducting his analysis that he may never pull the trigger and make a trade. That issue seems to be more prevalent with people in professions and vocations that require precision and perfection in their tasks. Engineers are classic (though not always fairly) examples of this type of paralysis. I apologize in advance to the engineers as I relate an observation a dentist I was coaching once made. He said engineers were his worst patients because they wanted a complete course in dentistry before they would permit him to drill a cavity. Obviously, that was hyperbole and meant in a joking manner, but it illustrates a type of trader paralysis. The person who seeks to learn every fundamental bit of information and then wants every technical to be in perfect alignment may never find a trade. He is caught in the confinement of his analysis process. Of course, I have to agree, if he does ultimately find a trade it may be a good one. It also may not be so good since the moment he enters the trade some fact about his stock or about the market in general may change and all the effort went for naught.

    Another type of paralysis is the deer in the headlights phenomenon where the trader is frozen in fear or panic as a position goes the wrong way against him. Most of us have had that type of paralysis at some point in our career. It is often marked by comments like: "it'll come back." The fact seems to be that at times traders see a position go the wrong way and just can't seem to pull the trigger to take the loss and move on to the next trade. This paralysis results in a failure to cut losses and can be devastating to a portfolio.

    While there may be other examples of paralysis in traders, each of the two may share a common cure in my view. The cure is to start trades with an exit strategy; one that will take the trader out of a trade before losses run too deep. If the paralysis by analysis trader is willing to look for a trade where the initial exit is nearby, he may begin to understand that the fear of loss that propels him into all the analysis in the first place may be alleviated by having an exit strategy that will cut any loss. The same, of course, is true for the deer in the headlights paralysis. If the trader has an exit strategy from the beginning all he need do is implement it.

    If we are going to trade, we must understand that there will be risk and there will be losing trades. As I write at length and in detail in my first book, "Trade Your Way to Wealth" , there are many ways to manage risk so that if not eliminated it can at least be reduced and managed. Paralysis in trading results from emotions. Fear of taking a loss or fear that I trade I enter might lose. Fear can be overcome by knowledge and if we learn how to reduce and manage risk there is less reason for fear and a lesser likelihood of paralysis.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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    Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)
    Our Success Trading Group members entered a position in Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (Ticker: WMT) this week. We like WMT at its current price for new positions.

    Have a great weekend and we'll trade next week.
    Success Trading Group Team


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  • Option Trader -- by Bill Kraft

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    The Option Trader service utilizes standard trading in Puts and Calls as well as strategies using Leaps, Straddles, Credit Spreads, Calendar Spreads, and Naked Puts. But no matter how sophisticated a strategy may be, we ALWAYS know our downside potential on every trade.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    1/100 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVER (^DJX)
    With the possibility of continued bearishness on the Dow, I am considering the possibility of a put debit spread, perhaps buying the Dec 100 puts and selliing the Dec 95 puts that would result in a net debit of a little over $2 on a $5 spread as of late Friday. That could set up the chance for a $3 gain on a $2 investment or the ability to make adjustments during the course of the trade.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
    "Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
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  • Trend Trader -- by Bill Kraft

    Trend trading as we try to practice it is a form of momentum trading. We prefer to try to capture profit out of the middle of the trend rather than try to catch reversal at bottoms and tops.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares (TWM)
    This fund (trades like a stock) seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Russell 2000 Index (the Index) so it is something I consider whenever things look bearish. It looks like there could be an entry if the share price breaks the resistance around $24. Since the fund is designed to trade at a multiple and in the opposite direction of the Russell 2000, I monitor positions closely because the price can move pretty fast both in my direction and against me.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
    "Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
    "Trading for Keeps: Making Money with Low Risk Option Trades" a trading DVD by Bill Kraft


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  • $10 Trader -- by Bill Kraft

    We really enjoy trading stocks that are $10 and under. Often they provide the chance to enjoy high percentage gains and, of course, at worst, the risk is limited to what we paid for the stock.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX)
    BSX has formed a little uptrend since coming off the June lows. It looks like there may be resistance just overhead, if it could break there it looks like it has a chance to fill the gap from back in March. If I enter a position even as the market goes down, I would want a pretty tight stop in the event the market force becomes to great for BSX to sustain a move.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
    "Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
    "Trading for Keeps: Making Money with Low Risk Option Trades" a trading DVD by Bill Kraft


    Try our Under $10 Trader Real-Time Alert Service!




  • Dividend Trader -- by Dividend Trader Team

    Our Dividend Trader service focuses solely on the "best of the best" dividend paying stocks. We trade these stocks for short-term gains and we will also buy these stocks for their powerful dividend producing income with a purpose to make capital gains as the stock increases in value.

    With these trades we attempt to get in and get out quickly. Once we buy, we immediately set an exit point of 3% above the buy price. We have had great success in the past. In fact, we have put together a string of 61 positions in a row that have hit our 3% target subsequent to the buy alert!

    While we titled this service a "trader" service, we also invest in these dividend-paying stocks from time to time for the long-term. We will buy these stocks for their powerful dividend producing income with a purpose to make capital gains as the stock increases in value.

    Many of the stocks that we will be "investing" in have had a history of raising their dividends almost every year. Year after year. This can be powerful. Building up your dividend income in a tax deferred account such as an IRA can siginficantly boost your account over the years.

    Feel free to sign-up for a free 30-day trial. During such time you can review our Trade Tables and see the type of stocks we are buying. You will also receive in real-time all the new trading and investing alerts we send during your trial period!

    Here is a play from the Dividend Trader Team:

    MDU Resources Group Inc. (MDU)
    Our Dividend Trader likes MDU Resources Group Inc. (Ticker: MDU) for a new Trade position at its current price. We are watching several stocks and are looking forward to trading next week.

    Have a great weekend and we'll trade next week.
    Dividend Trader Team

    Register Now for a 30-day FREE trial to our Dividend Trader service.



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