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Measuring Trading Success (Weekend Newsletter)
Archived Issue

Weekend Newsletter
June 26, 2010

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      In This Edition:


    Measuring Trading Success


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  • Measuring Trading Success -- By: Bill Kraft
    Copyright 2010, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
    Bill Kraft
    Bill Kraft
    Editor

    How do you measure your trading success? That almost sounds like a stupid question, doesn't it? Obviously, overall we measure it by how much we've made or lost. However, we might do well to recognize other measures as we go along. I suggest that approach because I have seen and heard so many traders ride an emotional roller coaster as the markets go up and down. One day there is euphoria and three days later abject panic. Markets and stocks go up and they go down. Traders will have winning trades and they will have losing trades. None of those individual trades necessarily mark whether a trader is an overall success or not. In fact, a losing trade can be a successful trade if the trader has followed a disciplined plan and cut a loss appropriately. Recognizing that there will be times of draw down for even the best trader, how can we measure success as we go along?

    As we conduct our trading, we can look back and see that there have been many steps to get us to where we now are. We can look at steps along that path to help us understand how well we might be doing. As a basic example, one of the first steps along the path to trading success was our learning how to use the computer. We may ask ourselves whether we have done that well or whether there may be some additional skill that might make our work easier, faster, and/or better. It seems that any improvement made in the steps along the way might improve the overall success.

    We might also measure success by other achievements such as whether we have completed a trading plan, whether we have followed our trading plan, whether we have learned strategies to trade up down or sideways markets, whether we have developed an exit strategy, whether we have a discipline to cut losses, whether we have devoted time to education through reading, DVDs, or seminars, whether we have structured our time to permit regularly attending to the business of trading, and so on.

    If we take the time to look back from where we are, we can see the steps that we have taken so far. As we do look at what we have done we can see what we haven't done as well and that may lead us to improve our trading. We may look back and see that we have closed losing positions only after losses have mounted to the point where we felt hopeless. That insight could easily lead us to establishing a more disciplined exit strategy. Instead of waiting for hopeless, we might, instead, decide to use the reversal of some indicator or the break through a moving average as a more disciplined way to cut losses more quickly and more efficiently.

    If we are less than satisfied with our success so far in trading, we might look back at the steps we have taken so far to find what could be improved. As we mark each step as a measure of success or, perhaps, not so much success, we can use it to improve from here as we go forward. Success is rarely static and can often be even better than we thought if we are willing to examine how we got where we are with an eye to how we can make changes to get where we want to be.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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    Here is a play from the Success Trading Group:

    MDU Resources Group Inc. (MDU)
    Our Success Trading Group will be watching closely for entry points next week on some of our favorite stocks. We currently like MDU Resources Group, Inc. (Ticker: MDU) at its current price for new positions.

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    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
    On Friday, this important security broke down through recent price support on increasing volume. While future movement will likely to be heavily influenced by overall market movement, the Friday move could signal a down leg in the offing. I am considering a bearish play, perhaps buying some 6 month out puts or maybe a call credit spread. A bounce up early Monday, particularly above $24.70 would make the idea much less attractive.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
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  • Trend Trader -- by Bill Kraft

    Trend trading as we try to practice it is a form of momentum trading. We prefer to try to capture profit out of the middle of the trend rather than try to catch reversal at bottoms and tops.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
    Having recently come up off a double bottom, JPM crossed above the 20 day exponential moving average on Friday on some pretty decent volume. The stock has now formed an uptrend that began early this month. Although there is a small resistance at last Monday's high, it looks like there is a target for the stock around $7 to the upside.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
    "Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
    "Trading for Keeps: Making Money with Low Risk Option Trades" a trading DVD by Bill Kraft


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  • $10 Trader -- by Bill Kraft

    We really enjoy trading stocks that are $10 and under. Often they provide the chance to enjoy high percentage gains and, of course, at worst, the risk is limited to what we paid for the stock.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    Marshall & Ilsley Corporation (MI)
    MI has recently come off a triple bottom and closed near the top of a short term channel. I am looking for either a break out of the channel or a retreat to support followed by a bounce.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
    "Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
    "Trading for Keeps: Making Money with Low Risk Option Trades" a trading DVD by Bill Kraft


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    While we titled this service a "trader" service, we also invest in these dividend-paying stocks from time to time for the long-term. We will buy these stocks for their powerful dividend producing income with a purpose to make capital gains as the stock increases in value.

    Many of the stocks that we will be "investing" in have had a history of raising their dividends almost every year. Year after year. This can be powerful. Building up your dividend income in a tax deferred account such as an IRA can siginficantly boost your account over the years.

    Feel free to sign-up for a free 30-day trial. During such time you can review our Trade Tables and see the type of stocks we are buying. You will also receive in real-time all the new trading and investing alerts we send during your trial period!

    Here is a play from the Dividend Trader Team:

    Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)
    Our Dividend Trader likes Verizon Communications Inc. (Ticker: VZ) for a new Trade position at its current price. We are watching several stocks and are looking forward to trading next week.

    Have a great weekend and we'll trade next week.
    Dividend Trader Team

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