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What Makes a Good Stock? (Weekend Newsletter)
Archived Issue

Weekend Newsletter
June 5, 2010

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      In This Edition:


    What Makes a Good Stock?


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  • What Makes a Good Stock? -- By: Bill Kraft
    Copyright 2010, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
    Bill Kraft
    Bill Kraft
    Editor

    I suppose there is a simple answer to the question: "What makes a good stock?" A good stock is one that enables us to make a profit. By that definition, a stock whose price is dropping dramatically can be a good stock for us if we have shorted it or bought puts on it or in some fashion have set up a trade that is designed to make money when the stock price falls. If not a good stock, it is at least one that provides a good result. On the other hand, I am aware that many, if not most, retail traders seek stocks that are going up in price. They are bullish by nature and define a good stock as one that is increasing in price. For the purposes of the remainder of this article, I'll go along with the idea that a stock making a bullish move or one in which we can profit from a move to the upside is a good stock.

    The next question, then, is what makes a good stock. All too often in my view, retail traders and investors confuse a good company with a good stock. If we look back over the last 5+ years (beginning January 2005), as an example, we can see that there are many good companies that simply have not had good stock as defined by an increase in value over the period. Take the Dow 30 Industrials for example. The companies in the Dow are well known and the index is followed by almost everyone who pays any attention at all to the markets. These companies are generally regarded as giants in their respective fields, but how have they done over the last 5 years? In terms of capital appreciation have the Dow 30 been good stocks during that period? Looking, for the moment, at those that have not split during those last 5 years, we can see that as of June 1st, many are trading at less than they were at the beginning of 2005. Among those that are down from their price at the beginning of 2005 to the time of this writing on June 1st are: AA, AXP, BAC, DD, GE, HD, INTC, JNJ, KFT, MMM, PFE, T, and VZ. Some like JPM and MSFT are trading near the same price they were trading back at the beginning of 2005. In other words, even after the relatively strong run-up from March, 2009 to the present about half of the Dow, arguably some of the best and strongest companies in the world, stood still or lost ground.

    The only conclusions I draw from those facts are that a good company is not necessarily a good stock (in terms of capital appreciation over a given period of time) and buying and holding even great companies may leave the investor very disappointed over time.

    Obviously there are other elements besides capital appreciation that a given investor or trader may consider when defining for himself what may be a good stock. Certainly, perceived safety may be a consideration as might be the frequency and yield of dividends. So much of the definition of what is a good stock must come from the goals as incorporated into the plan of an investor. It may be that some investors don't care whether the stock they own falls in price over a 5 year period as long as they are receiving regular dividends and can write out of the money covered calls to bring in income while for others it may seem inappropriate to hold a position that is going the wrong way over a 5 year period.

    Once again, it comes down to the individual's trading business plan as I have so often emphasized here and about which I have written relatively extensively in both "Trade Your Way to Wealth" , and in "Smart Investors Money Machine" . My purpose in this article is merely to suggest that defining a "good" stock depends upon who is doing the defining. It is probably a worthwhile effort to take the time and trouble to understand the elements of your own definition.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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    MDU Resources Group Inc. (MDU)
    We currently like MDU Resources Group (Ticker: MDU) at its current price for new positions. We have several stocks on our radar and are looking forward to trading next week.

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  • Option Trader -- by Bill Kraft

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    The Option Trader service utilizes standard trading in Puts and Calls as well as strategies using Leaps, Straddles, Credit Spreads, Calendar Spreads, and Naked Puts. But no matter how sophisticated a strategy may be, we ALWAYS know our downside potential on every trade.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (^RUT)
    When volatility is climbing I begin to watch for opportunities to sell premium. Indices like RUT (Russell 2000 Index) have options that often offer high premiums (and high risk). At market close on Friday it appeared that a support may be forming on the RUT and on a bounce I might look at selling some short term out of the money puts like the Jun 600s quoted at $8.70 x $9.50 after the close. Since selling naked puts can entail significant capital risk, I might consider instead selling a credit so that I have limited risk although that could take some of the volatility away.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
    "Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
    "Trading for Keeps: Making Money with Low Risk Option Trades" a trading DVD by Bill Kraft


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  • Trend Trader -- by Bill Kraft

    Trend trading as we try to practice it is a form of momentum trading. We prefer to try to capture profit out of the middle of the trend rather than try to catch reversal at bottoms and tops.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    Tele Norte Leste Participacoes S.A. (TNE)
    I was able to close a profitable position on TNE this week before the sharp drop to capture a 7.6% gain before commission in 22 days. The price has now retreated to the vicinity of the trend line and a bounce up off that will get my attention.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
    "Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
    "Trading for Keeps: Making Money with Low Risk Option Trades" a trading DVD by Bill Kraft


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  • $10 Trader -- by Bill Kraft

    We really enjoy trading stocks that are $10 and under. Often they provide the chance to enjoy high percentage gains and, of course, at worst, the risk is limited to what we paid for the stock.

    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    Edac Technologies Corp. (EDAC)
    Though lightly traded, this one moved against the strong tide on Friday to gain about 3% for the day. It appears to have completed a bullish cup and handle pattern and could show some life if not dragged down by the overall market.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
    "Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
    "Trading for Keeps: Making Money with Low Risk Option Trades" a trading DVD by Bill Kraft


    Try our Under $10 Trader Real-Time Alert Service!




  • Dividend Trader -- by Dividend Trader Team

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    With these trades we attempt to get in and get out quickly. Once we buy, we immediately set an exit point of 3% above the buy price. We have had great success in the past. In fact, we have put together a string of 61 positions in a row that have hit our 3% target subsequent to the buy alert!

    While we titled this service a "trader" service, we also invest in these dividend-paying stocks from time to time for the long-term. We will buy these stocks for their powerful dividend producing income with a purpose to make capital gains as the stock increases in value.

    Many of the stocks that we will be "investing" in have had a history of raising their dividends almost every year. Year after year. This can be powerful. Building up your dividend income in a tax deferred account such as an IRA can siginficantly boost your account over the years.

    Feel free to sign-up for a free 30-day trial. During such time you can review our Trade Tables and see the type of stocks we are buying. You will also receive in real-time all the new trading and investing alerts we send during your trial period!

    Here is a play from the Dividend Trader Team:

    Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
    Our Dividend Trader will be watching closely for entry points next week. We like Johnson & Johnson (Ticker: JNJ) for a new Trade position at its current price.

    Have a great weekend and we'll trade next week.
    Dividend Trader Team

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