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PANIC!!! (Weekend Newsletter)
Archived Issue

Weekend Newsletter
May 15, 2010

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    PANIC!!!


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  • PANIC!!! -- By: Bill Kraft
    Copyright 2010, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
    Bill Kraft
    Bill Kraft
    Editor

    Well, recent market actions have shown us some of the emotion I've discussed in recent articles. The Dow fell almost 1000 points in a short time during a day only to regain 650 of those points in short order the same day a week ago. My phone was ringing and emails were coming from traders who had attended no seminars and who had decided against personal coaching because it was too expensive. How expensive, I asked was the market drop. Turned out in every case that it was substantially more expensive than the cost of the coaching. Penny wise and hit hard financially.

    The callers were uniformly filled with panic. What should I do? "Should I hold on now because I already have big losses" was one question. "Would you prefer a bigger loss?" I asked. Fear can paralyze and it often does in the markets. The problem, of course, is one about which I have been harping for as long as I have been teaching and coaching traders. If we are going to succeed, we need a plan...PERIOD. The plan needs to include an exit strategy and the time to formulate that strategy is before the trader enters the trade. Often it is just too late to create the strategy in the middle of the play, particularly when things are going the wrong way fast. That is when fear and panic enter and control the picture. As I wrote in "Trade Your Way to Wealth" , each of us needs to create a trading plan for ourselves and the plan needs to be formulated in such a way that we can cut losses in a disciplined fashion and so that we can let profits run. That book sets out elements I believe are extremely helpful in creating one's own plan. None of the panic driven callers had followed the advice.

    There are many ways to make (and lose) money in the markets. I wrote my second book, "Smart Investors Money Machine" to show people at varying stages of life how to create streams of income that could add to their financial quality of life. The book details a variety of ways to add to income almost no matter who you are. Some of the income strategies discussed can be put in place and left alone so panic does not become the ruler. As an example, suppose your basic interest is in generating income and you find a strategy that fits your circumstances and yields a somewhat modest 8% or 10% a year. Further suppose, for ease of math, that you have $100,000 to invest in that strategy and what you want is a regular income. In that case, you have a vehicle whereby you are getting $8,000 or $10,000 a year and that is what you designed your plan to do. Whether that original investment of $100,000 goes to $80,000 or $110,000 you are still making that $8,000 or $10,000 a year. Is that OK? Of course, the answer depends on you. Capital appreciation is great, but in the example, we were looking for regular steady income and that is precisely what we got. Even if the principal falls to $80,000, we are still getting our income so do we care? Many would answer: "Of course I care, I don't want to be down $20K on my investment." Fact is, however, that the purpose of the investment, the plan, was to generate regular income and it continues to do that no matter how the principal rises and falls. Is that OK? For some it certainly may be; for others that may be unacceptable. It might be prudent to look inwardly and see where you really fall.

    I only offer the foregoing example as food for thought and to attempt to engender an understanding that the markets offer many ways to success. Panic, on the other hand, generally only serves to defeat the trader. It can and often does lead to bad decisions and, at times, extraordinary losses. I suggest, once again, that traders think and prepare first, decide on the strategy that suits their persona, prepare the plan and then execute it. That is a ready, aim, fire approach as opposed to the all too common ready, fire, aim of those who set themselves up in advance to be devastated by their own panic.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft


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    1/100 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVER (^DJX)
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    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
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    Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:

    ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (DXD)
    With serious uncertainty in the markets, DXD is a way I sometimes use to play downward moves on the Dow. When in DXD positions, I always try to maintain a close watch since it can move very fast. DXD is above the 10, 20, and 40 day exponential moving averages and a break through any of those could be an exit strategy depending upon the trader's individual plan.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
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    Intersections Inc. (INTX)
    INTX has managed to hold against the market direction and appears to have established a bit of an uptrend. I am watching for an entry, but would not intend to take anything but a small position since the stock is relatively lightly traded and that can lead to greater volatility.

    Good Trading!
    Bill Kraft
    Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
    "Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
    "Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
    "Trading for Keeps: Making Money with Low Risk Option Trades" a trading DVD by Bill Kraft


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