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Some Thoughts on Stops -- By: Bill Kraft
Copyright 2010, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
 Bill Kraft Editor |
Recently a subscriber wrote on the blog asking how to avoid getting
whipsawed out on stops when there are traders out there who hunt for
clusters of stops so they can attempt to profit by triggering the stop
and then enjoying a run-up. Assuming there are such traders (as I do)
that can be a difficult problem. Before we attack that somewhat
sophisticated issue, however, let's examine what a stop loss order is
and what it does for those who may not have a clear concept of stops.
A sell stop loss order is an order to the broker to sell shares of
stock when a specific price is hit. For example, suppose we owned 1000
shares of XYZ at $25.67 a share and that we wanted to cut our losses if
the stock price fell below a certain level. In this example, we'll say
we want to be out of our position if the shares go below $24.75 so we
place a stop loss at $24.75. That order tells our broker to sell our
position "at the market" if the share price touches or goes below
$24.75. It is important to understand that the order does not guarantee
us that we will get $24.75 a share; it only guarantees that our position
will be sold at the then current market price if the share price touches
$24.75 or below. We could get more than $24.75 or less. Assume, in our
example, that XYZ closed last night at $25 a share and we have our
$24.75 stop in place, but this morning the stock opens at $23 a share.
Since $23 a share is below our stop, the order to sell our shares is
immediately sent to the floor as a market order and we may get $23 a
share or a bit more or less, depending upon the price when it reaches
our place in line. Though we have taken a bigger loss than we may have
thought, we nevertheless are out of the position where the stock is
falling. That is better than taking bigger and bigger losses.
A buy stop order is an order to the broker to buy shares of the
stock once the stop price is hit. Again, with a buy stop, once the
price is hit, the order goes to the floor as a buy at the market order
so we could pay less or even much more than the price at which our stop
is set. For that reason, I never set simple buy stop orders, but use
the buy stop limit order. That adds another element to the order. Once
the buy stop is hit, the order then goes as a limit order so that I will
not pay any more (though I may pay less) than whatever limit I set.
With that basic understanding of stops, the question becomes where
one is going to place the stop. For purposes of this article, I am going
to discuss only the stop loss order ordinarily placed when one already
owns the stock and wants to protect the downside. I believe that the
decision of where to place stops is one of the most difficult tasks of
the trader. It involves some art to achieve superior results. The
difficulty arises from some subjectivity that is necessary in placing
what I would consider to be good stops. I have often urged the necessity
of discipline in trading and much of the discipline can be achieved by
lines on charts like price support or resistance or trend support or a
moving average. The problem with the use of these great tools with
setting stops is that any savvy trader has a clear idea of where the
great bulk of stops are placed and, in any event, stops are visible to
the market. In our earlier example of XYZ, suppose there was a
horizontal price support at $24.80. There is a good chance that most
stops are around the $24.75 to $24.80 mark so the traders searching for
clusters of stops (such as those about whom the subscriber is concerned)
would have little difficulty identifying the price to which they want to
drive the stock to set off the stops.
Under current rules there is little we can do about the visibility,
but even if they weren't visible, it is often a no-brainer to guess
where they are. The art for the trader placing the stop is to be just
outside the range where most of the stops are placed. That approach
adds somewhat to the risk because the stop will be lower than those of
the crowd, but it will also avoid some of the frustrating whipsaws. My
best advice is that setting good stops comes with experience. Practice
paper trading stops to see how close the dips come to your stop and
whether you are getting whipsawed out or whether the share price turns
just above your stop. With some practice, you may find the price coming
within pennies of your stop and then turning back up. Again, that part
is the art and I suspect it only gets better with experience.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
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Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
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