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Indecision and Vacillation -- By: Bill Kraft
Copyright 2010, Makin' Hay, Inc., All Rights Reserved
 Bill Kraft Editor |
I recently had an experience with a prospective coaching student
unlike any I've had before that highlights a personality trait that I
believe can be extremely detrimental to trading. The coaching prospect
contacted me following a webinar I did for my favorite charting service
company. I had offered a coaching special at half price to a very
limited number of students and this fellow called and scheduled a
session. Soon thereafter he emailed and asked if his wife could attend
as well, and, of course, that was fine with me. I believe it is a good
thing for a spouse of a trader to have at least some basic knowledge in
the event something unfortunate happens to the trader. In any event, he
then wrote and asked if he could move up the date for his coaching
session and I complied. I guess I made my mistake when I sent the
fellow my 5 DVD SWAT (Stockmarket Weapons and Tactics) seminar as a gift
to help him prepare for the session. Ordinarily, I provide the set at
the conclusion of the coaching session to help refresh students after
they go back home, but thought the $199 set might be particularly
helpful ahead of time for this student since he was not as advanced as
many who have come to me. Anyway, after he received the DVD set, he
emailed and wrote that he preferred telephone coaching which is
something I do not do until after an in person session. When I
reaffirmed that approach with the student he indicated that he
understood and "probably" would go forward with the in person training.
To make an already long story short, he simply stiffed me, not even
bothering to let me know he had decided to forget the coaching.
I relate all this not just because it was somewhat irritating, but
also to illustrate indecision and vacillation. My prospective student
first decided on the training and agreed to the terms and a date. He
then wanted to change the date and bring his wife, both of which were
fine with me. He then changed his mind about in person training and
wanted to do things over the phone because some friend of his had
another teacher mentoring the friend over the phone. He then changed
his mind again and decided on the personal session. Finally he again
changed his mind and decided not to undergo the training, but rather
just kept the DVDs.
While I don't like to be taken any more than the next guy, that is
not my point here. My point is that this fellow demonstrated a great
deal of vacillation and indecision. First one thing then another and
then another and then another. My fear is that the indecision and
vacillation are symptoms of a personality that may not be conducive to
good trading. Buyers remorse is one thing, but frequent vacillation may
be quite another. I have seen traders who worry themselves sick about
making an entry and once the position is entered become frozen in
indecision when the play goes against them. They may, for example,
decide that they will exit if the stock price moves 50 cents against
them, but when it moves those 50 cents then decide to let it go another
25 cents and so on until what was once a small loss becomes a large loss
because they were unable to make the decision to actually pull the
plug. The opposite may also be true where they want to get into a
position but delay and delay until they finally get in only as the move
nears its end.
I believe a trader must be decisive if he is going to be
successful. As I outlined in the recent series of articles, good
trading in my book starts with a plan. Decisions are made in creating
the overall plan and in planning a given trade. That plan would likely
include both an entry strategy and an exit strategy. Once the decisions
are made, they should be followed. For example, if a trader has decided
he will exit a position when a price falls through a moving average, he
should exit when the price falls through the moving average rather than
vacillate and decide that "it'll come back" and he'll let it go another
dime or quarter or dollar.
We all probably have an internal dialog, and I have found that for
many unsuccessful traders the internal dialog results in worry,
uncertainty and vacillation. Instead of listening to that internal
dialog during the heat of an actual trade, would it not be better in
most cases to have decided on the plan before encountering the emotions
of an ongoing trade and simply follow the plan? Of course, I don't mean
to suggest that once made a plan should never be changed. A trading
plan is always a work in progress and subject to change. I do suggest,
however, that changes be made at a time when the emotions are not
pulling and pushing, but rather at a time when the trader can review
unemotionally and contemplate intelligently where and how he can improve
his plan.
Incidentally, I did email the former prospective student
reaffirming that the DVDs were a gift and suggesting that he align
himself with some mentor who has been a successful trader, not one who
just teaches, and that be willing to pay the price for the mentoring
because one way or the other we all pay for our trading education.
Paying through losses is usually a much more expensive way to go than
paying for the education from someone who has proven to be a successful
trader.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
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Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
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Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:
VCA Antech Inc. (WOOF)
Here is a stock that has been trending up since February and
after a retracement, traded with a range throughout the week. It looks
as though it may now have established a support around 27 and may be
preparing to move higher. Earnings are scheduled to be announced next
week so I am in no rush to enter, however, a bounce up off the 18 day or
20 day moving average after earnings are announced might convince me to
take a position in the stock.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
"Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
"Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
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We really enjoy trading stocks that are $10 and under. Often they provide the chance to enjoy high percentage gains and, of course, at worst, the risk is limited to what we paid for the stock.
Here's a look at a trade Bill is currently working on:
AgFeed Industries, Inc. (FEED)
$10 Trader has not closed a losing trade since September of
last year and, coincidentally, that trade was in FEED. This week, I
closed another trade in FEED that gained 4.7% before commission in just
2 weeks. Once again, the stock appears to have fallen to a level of
support and I am waiting for a bounce up off either the price support or
a bounce up trend support as a possible reason to enter a new position.
Good Trading!
Bill Kraft
Editor of $10 Trader, Option Trader and Trend Trader
"Trade Your Way to Wealth" by Bill Kraft is an Amazon.com best seller!
"Smart Investors Money Machine" is Bill Kraft's most recent publication.
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Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)
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